ScheduleRiskAnalysis - 项目进度风险分析工具
ScheduleRiskAnalysis(SRA)是一种利用@RISK进行蒙特卡洛模拟的完整工具集,可帮助项目经理考虑项目进度中的不确定变量。SRA让您在熟悉的Excel环境中进行工作,让您可以对Primavera P6或Microsoft Project中创建的项目文件进行风险建模。只需将这些文件读入SRA,即可立即在Excel中应用@RISK蒙特卡洛模拟的所有功能和灵活性。诸如Project或P6之类的调度应用程序缺乏考虑不确定变量(如未知任务日期、持续时间或资源使用)的能力。SRA通过将市场上强大的风险分析技术带到您的进度中来填补这一空缺,同时保留您原始模型的完整性和逻辑。重要的是,您现在可以将成本风险模型与进度模型结合在一起,集成到一个地方进行项目风险管理 - 在您的电子表格中!
ScheduleRiskAnalysis的应用
SRA有多种应用,包括:
- 交通规划: 管理不确定的进度结果,制定应急计划,并量化成本风险,以满足联邦合规要求,确保为未来几十年的所有利益相关者提供承诺的结果。考虑高度不确定的使用预测,以满足未来需求。
- 国防项目: 规划复杂的战略,用于军事装备的开发、制造和采购。这类项目的风险因素加剧了技术可行性的目标,并涉及巨额成本。了解不同结果的风险因素和概率,以满足批准要求,并改进按时、按预算交付。
- 航空航天工程: 了解达到里程碑的可能性以及Delay对多年、高风险的航天和航空项目后续阶段的影响。生成和分析大量数据,用于分析故障点并确定新机会领域。
- 建筑业: 考虑不确定的建筑成本和未知的建筑进度,以获取融资并满足监管要求。评估未来几十年设施使用的需求。确定Delay和超支的主要风险,并制定合理的应急计划以确保开发项目顺利进行。
- 集成进度和成本风险分析: 评估项目中各种任务的持续时间、开始日期和结束日期的变化,以及对各种任务的未知成本和资源需求添加不确定性。模拟进度和成本以确定在不同资金水平下实现完成日期的机会。确定给定置信水平下的应急要求。
各行业使用@RISK进行进度风险分析:
- 能源与公用事业
- 保险与再保险
- 金融与银行业
- 制造与消费品
- 建筑与工程
- 航空航天与国防
英文简介:
ScheduleRiskAnalysis (SRA) is a comprehensive toolset utilizing Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK to help project managers account for uncertain variables in project schedules. SRA enables working within the familiar Excel environment and allows for risk modeling on project files created in Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project. By simply importing these files into SRA, users can instantly apply all the features and flexibility of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation in Excel.
Applications of ScheduleRiskAnalysis:
SRA has diverse applications including:
Transportation Planning: Manage uncertain schedule outcomes, develop contingency plans, and quantify cost risks to meet federal compliance requirements and ensure long-term outcomes for stakeholders.
Defense Projects: Plan complex strategies for the development, manufacture, and procurement of military equipment, understanding risks and probabilities for on-time, in-budget deliveries.
Aerospace Engineering: Assess the likelihood of hitting milestones and understand the impact of delays on downstream phases of high-risk space and aeronautics projects.
Construction: Account for uncertain construction costs and build schedules to secure financing and meet regulatory requirements, identifying major risks and developing contingency plans.
Integrated Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis: Assess variation around duration, start, and end dates, as well as add uncertainty to costs and resource requirements, simulating both schedule and costs to determine completion dates at different funding levels.
Industries Utilizing ScheduleRiskAnalysis:
Energy & Utilities
Insurance & Reinsurance
Finance & Banking
Manufacturing & Consumer Goods
Construction & Engineering
Aerospace & Defense
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